Swine Flu Stocks Tumble

This past week we have seen Biotech Indexes falling sharply. In addition there has been a massive Swine Flu Stock sell-off. Stocks of note are Novavax (NVAX), Sinovac (SVA), Biocryst (BCRX), AVI Biopharma (AVII), and Dynavax Technolog (DVAX).

NVAX: 090109 6.65 high, Today at 3.81-- 43% loss
SVA: 090109 10.46 high, Today at 7.90-- 25% loss
BCRX:091509 11.67 high, Today at 8.26-- 29% loss
AVII: 090109 2.08 high, Today at 1.58-- 24% loss
DVAX: 091009 2.55 high, Today at 1.80-- 29% loss

Today's selloff is a sign that these stocks are solely trading on hype and volatility, this hype could come back but these are volatile stocks that will rise and fall sharply. Yesterday's crash appears to have come from Congress' Health Care 80B Dollar Bill vote. In news today, the Senate Votes Down New Pharma Cuts. We have the G20 convention in Pittsburgh this week. But there is a lot affecting the market the past couple of days. The Federal Reserve has people talking too. Today, the Fed moves to be sooner, faster, stronger: Warsh, meaning faster rate hikes in this case.

The market recovers slightly only to be set back down quickly to previous gains. It a state of reflux that is unpredictable. I see the swine flu stocks coming back but I do not think they will return to previous highs any time soon. Maybe at the height of flu season but with an early flu season we could all have some immunity to it by the end of the season. It's not that bad but it is a very contagious flu strain affecting young people at alarming rates. I do see these stocks rising again but there is no way to tell.

Big Money in Swine Flu Stocks

Today was a good day for Swine flu stocks. Most small caps were up 5 to 10% today alone. So lets go over today's Swine Flu winners. Many investor's still think this is a lot of hype but with Flu season coming around the corner, I see things only getting worse. I have been a Microbiologist by trade and do see this as an outbreak, maybe not a pandemic, but anything is possible. The US government is spending Billions on getting vaccines ready for Flu Season. I am only including the small caps here but Novartis, Glaxo, Baxter, Roche and Gilead are the big players in the market.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) 12.60 +2.55 up 25.37%
Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB) 2.22 +0.32 up 16.84%
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA) 5.47 +0.54 up 10.95%
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) 5.21 +0.45 up 9.45%
CEL-SCI Corp. (CVM) 0.475 +0.0273 up 6.10%


All this is based on a report out from the President's Panel earlier today. The Washington Post article is titled Swine Flu Could Infect Half of U.S. Population, Report Says. Understood is the fact that no one can predict how good or bad the Flu season will be, but I see it above average at minimum. Most schools and colleges are starting back in the next couple of weeks if not already and anyone with kids knows how easy germs spread with children. Colleges are just the same. Colleges can be breeding grounds for these outbreaks to occur.

Most of these profits are on hype and you should take caution with investments based on volatility alone. However, I see these as strong buys coming into flu season. Wait for them to come down just a bit before investing with a limit order at a set price. As always, do your homework and check the companies financial information before investing.

Doing some research on the H1N1 outbreak here are some good links.

CDC's 2009 H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu)

CDC's Weekly Flu View

Google News Search Swine Flu

CNN Swine Flu Goes To College

Google News Search H1N1

Southern Hemisphere's swine flu experience holds hints of what may be ahead