Avanir and Exact Sciences Crash in Afterhours Trading

Exact Sciences (EXAS)  has crashed steadily since yesterday's close of 8.57.  It has slumped to the 6.90 range after yesterday announcing Positive Study News.  Unfortunately, this is just a study which will lead into a lengthy clinical trial that will cost money.  I think investors have been misled by this news and now they don't know what to do and are panicking.  Hey Stop Panicking.

Exact's stock is rated a buy and will soon return to the 9-10 range in a few months and could skyrocket to 13 with Positive Clinical Trial News.  There really is no quick buck when it comes to stock investing.  It happens, and it can happen, but more times than not, these things take time. 

On other news Avanir's Stock (AVNR) has declined sharply in afterhours saying they have not heard from the FDA and is anticipating news concerning their approval for psuedobulbar affect.  I am expecting a CRL from the FDA and no approval and this would be devastating to Avanir Shareholders.  But it could get approved.  It does have a fighting chance. 

In other news Vivus receives a CRL for Qnexa and the share price has gone up.  That one I really don't get but investors sometimes don't know what they are getting themselves into.  Sure if approved it would be monumental, but I don't see that happening anytime soon.  Vivus' shares are up 26.43% at 7.75.  Today it gained 1.62 points.  I don't see this ride ending well for investors but what do I know.  I am baffled at the stock market right now.

Wikinvest--Exact Sciences (EXAS)
Wikinvest--Avanir (AVNR)
Wikinvest--Vivus (VVUS)

This Week's Watchlist Oct 25 2010 With the FDA

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A, B and Z DNA Structures, the building blocks of Proteins and Amino Acids

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 On tap for this week we have three FDA decisions:

ARNA - Arena received an expected CRL on Saturday for its weightloss drug Lorcaserin. (Subscribers to BioRunUp were immediately notified via SMS and email alerts) The CRL was as expected with no real surprises. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the FDA's requests on Monday morning. ARNA closed at $1.63 on Friday after surging nearly 22% at one point during the day. These prices are much below its run-up high of $8 in late July.  Arena Receives CRL

BIOD - Biodel is up for an FDA decision on 10/30/10, and trader consensus is clearly leaning towards a CRL from the FDA. Traders became even more jittery last week as the FDA delivered some heavy handed CRLs to AMLN/ALKS, on a drug that was widely expected to receive approval. The market seemed to react as if saying 'If AMLN/ALKS was 'in the bag' and the FDA required more trials, there is NO way that the FDA will approve Linjeta with that botch India data.' Trading at under a 100M market cap, BIOD has incredible potential on approval. However FDA uncertainty seems to have limited the run-up.

AVNR - Out of this week's watchlist stocks, AVNR seems to have the best odds of approval. Despite this, AVNR still took a hit from the AMLN/ALKS CRL. This was because that CRL was based largely because the FDA was concerned about prolongation of QT interval, a concern that was also expressed by the FDA in Avanir’s first CRL for AVP-923. Will this continue to haunt AVNR? We will soon find out.

EXAS - Its catalyst time for one of our best picks of the year. We recommended EXAS in the high $3 range and were thrilled to watch it climb to over $9. Study results are going to be presented this Friday, 10/29 at the AACR conference.  
 
BioPharma Investor's Decisions:
 
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